Who's Hot? Who's Not? 08/12/14

Who's Hot? Who's Not?

I feel like we are hearing more about rookies than ever this preseason. Maybe it's just me, but rookies across the board are becoming more and more fantasy relevant as of late. Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater are all being watched through a magnifying glass, and judged like they're supposed to be seasoned vets. Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins are both looking good in preseason. And there are some emerging RB's as well.

I breakdown rookies and more in this week's "Who's Hot? Who's Not?"

WHO'S HOT?

1. Johnny Manziel

His hype is legendary. His game, unique. But what Johnny Manziel brings to the table is something much different than other Rookie QB's. Johnny brings constant excitement. In his first NFL game Manziel kept the entire NFL fanbase and personnel captivated. The world sat and watched a meaningless preseason game just to see how Johnny would do. I found myself often saying "Is Hoyer ever gonna get off the field? Nobody wants to see him play." Straight up Johnny Manziel did better than we thought, and with a much higher ceiling than Hoyer, I expect him to take the helm come Week 1. His fantasy value is that of a low QB2 in two QB leagues. He's also worth a deep flyer consideration.

 2. Brandin Cooks


Every report that we have heard from Saints camp this year about Brandin Cooks has been a good one. The kid is gaining hype at an extremely rapid rate. Brandin Cooks also looked good in preseason debut, posting 5 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown. He'll be an interesting person to watch all preseason. The only bad thing about his hype is that somebody in your draft will grab him well before you can, and probably well before anybody should. This could be a good defensive move to wait on him.

3. Devonta Freeman


Another rookie. This is what I'm talking about. This time it's Falcons RB Devonta Freeman. Freeman has impressed many in recent days. And with the backfield filled with the Dinosaur that is Steven Jackson and the 5'6" Jacquizz Rodgers, the 5'8" Freeman should have no problem making a convincing argument for reps. He may not be a fantasy star this year, but I will boldly predict that he will be in the next few years. He should be a late flyer in deeper leagues.

4. LeSean McCoy


LeSean hasn't really been in the news all that much lately (Other than this ridiculous video of him throwing weights.) But the guy is the real deal. And I think he will be all year for somebody. In non-PPR leagues, McCoy is my #1 runningback off the board. In a PPR league, he goes second behind Jamaal Charles. Either way, this guy is going to be a real hot commodity to have on your roster. If you can get him, do it.

5. Jamaal Charles


Like McCoy (above), Charles hasn't been getting much attention in preseason or training camp this year. But that's the way you want it with a Fantasy Star. Jamaal had a short, yet effective holdout. Both these guys may not have done anything recently to gain the four and five spot on this list, but their heat carries over from last year. Charles is the #1 overall pick in a PPR league for me this year. And falls to #2 for a non-PPR league. It's going to be interesting to watch both McCoy and Charles this year no matter what kind of league you're in. Don't be upset if you get either of these guys.


WHO'S NOT?

1. Johnny Manziel


No, you're not seeing double. Johnny really made this blog twice. He's a great player. But here are some negatives about him also: I have voiced my opinion on how annoying the Browns are drafting him and then complaining about his lifestyle, but it goes both ways. Johnny needs to do his part to uphold the name of both the Organization that writes his checks, and also to please some of the nay-sayers keeping him from being "The next great thing." Conforming should Manziel's strategy here, you can find other times to party.

2. Dallas Cowboys Defense


The injury bug has bitten the Cowboys hard this offseason and, already having one of the league's worst defenses BEFORE the injuries, will have to deal with one more year of being among the league's worst. For whoever needs a quick recap, here's how the Dallas "D" did last year. Yards against: 6,645 (Worst) Yds/Game Against: 415.3 (Worst), Passing Yards Against: 4,589 (30th), Rushing Yards Against: 2,056 (27th), Points Against: 432 (26th), you get the idea. They're bad. Expect them to be worse this year, if that's even possible.

3. Dee Milliner


Do you know who Dee Milliner is? I don't think most people do. That's why he makes this list. Two weeks ago Dee Milliner was quoted saying that he thinks he is the best corner in the league. Before you feel like you need to say something, don't. A week later, karma bit him in the butt. Or rather, the ankle. Milliner will have to be the best corner on the bench for three or so weeks. At least you can't say the Jets don't make you smile every once in awhile.

4. Bishop Sankey


As a Dawgs fan, it hurts every part of my body to say this. But Bishop Sankey is on the Not Hot list this week. After a ton of hype coming out of Training Camp, and being the first back taken off the board in the draft, a lot of people had really high expectations for Sankey. Unfortunately, he just couldn't get anything  going in his game, going just 37 yards on 13 carries. Let's hope that Sankey does a little better next week so I never have to put him on this list again. Sankey has good PPR value, Catching 3 passes this last game. If he underperforms throughout the preseason, it might be a good idea to pick up Shonn Greene late just in case.

5. The Houston Texans


The Texans spent their #1 overall pick this year on the menace that is Jadeveon Clowney. He will no doubt be a great player for many years, and is a part of one of the scariest D-Lines in the game today playing opposite J.J. Watt. But drafting Jadeveon Clowney did not fix their glaring problem at QB. Instead, it appears they are going to have the underwhelming Ryan Fitzpatrick throw the ball, to a Andre Johnson, who doesn't even want to be there. And when they want to run it, they'll hand it off to the Injury-Prone Arian Foster. If you wanted to put together an equation for how to lost 32-0 in your preseason debut to the Cardinals, this is how you would do it. Hopefully the Texans can turn it around this year and at least compete with somebody. Until then, I'll only watch when their defense is playing, which after watching their offense, seems like it'll be a lot.

That covers it for this week's Who's Hot, Who's Not? If you have any suggestions for players who are doing well, or players who are sucking it up, feel free to tweet me some suggestions using my twitter name @_TrevorAnderson


In the meantime, Mr. Know It All is undergoing a lot of cool things. We'll be getting a logo for the blog, and I'll even be setting up it's own Twitter and Email for fans of the blog to interact with. Thanks again for reading.

- Mr. Know It All

The Do's and Dont's of Fantasy Football

The "Do's" and "Dont's" of 

Fantasy Football

Welcome to Mr. Know it All's Draft Day and Season Tutorial. This is a post about what you should do, and what you shouldn't do in the days leading up to, on, and after your Fantasy Football draft day. Now, draft day is a very ceremonious time in a Fantasy Football league. It's the one day where all of your most cherished (or despised) fantasy football friends and foes get together in one room for one purpose, Fantasy Football. Draft Day is my most fun day of the Fantasy Football year. It's the one day where you can say to your buddies "I'm smarter than you, and I'm about to prove it,"  and not look like more of an ass than you usually do. That's why I think it's important to go over some tips and tricks to win your Fantasy Football Draft Day and hopefully, your league. 

We're one day away from the first game of the first week of Preseason football (not counting the Hall of Fame game). So if you've already drafted, you've already broken my number one rule of Fantasy Football draft day:

Rule #1: Don't, under any circumstances, draft before the preseason starts. - In fact, I wouldn't advise drafting until at least a week before Regular Season starts. Anything sooner than that and you're taking a massively unnecessary risk. The preseason is important to lots of people, especially Fantasy Football owners. Although the games are boring, and the players you came to watch don't play after the first quarter, there is a ton to learn from these games. First, you get a really good look at what the Depth Chart is going to look like come Week 1. Nobody wants to draft the guy that was "supposed" to start, just to find out that some guy from Training Camp and Preseason outplayed him and won the spot. It also shows you which guys are creeping up to stealing playing time away from your starting players. So wouldn't you much rather have this info before you draft? Second, players get hurt, it happens. Don't let it happen to one of your players in the preseason. If the guy you planned on drafting first suddenly tears or breaks something in the preseason, you don't have to feel the heartbreak. But if you already drafted him, you'll be crying yourself to sleep that night. Don't get mad at me, I just saved you from a night full of a gallon of ice cream and Lifetime movies to numb the pain. 

Rule #2: Don't draft your favorite player just because he's your favorite player. - My favorite player is Wes Welker. And just like you, I wanted my favorite player on my fantasy team. So last year, I traded DeMarco Murray for him. It wouldn't have been as bad if he hadn't right after gotten another concussion and missed the last three games of the year. Lesson learned. Unless your player is a first round talent, don't reach too far. This isn't saying that if your favorite player is still on the board at an appropriate time to draft that you shouldn't, because you should, that's the fun part of Fantasy. And it's totally a win-win if he's scoring a bunch of points.

Rule #3: Don't draft too many guys from the same team.  - Unless you have Peyton Manning, Knowshon Moreno, and Eric Decker from last year, this usually doesn't work out so well. The winner of my LoR last year won with those guys, we all thought he was a fool for starting all three. Boy we ate our words. Anyway, this rule is pretty self-explanatory. We all have a favorite team(s), go out and grab one or two guys from it if it's worth it, but don't try to fill your roster with them. Because more often than not, if one of the guys is having a really good game, it's usually at the expense of another player on the team. Don't be afraid to diversify.

Rule #4: Do your research - I start preparing for draft day well in advance, because I know that I'm going to need to know a lot of stuff about a lot of guys, especially going into the later rounds. So you have to read up on these guys as much as you can. Do they drop the ball a lot? Do they take a few plays off? Do they have a tendency to break their arm in a car wreck reaching for a sliding box of pizza? (You know who you are.) Don't be afraid to read up on guys that you didn't think were even draftable, you'd be surprised at what kind of value you can find with these guys that nobody else did. You could find last year's Keenan Allen. My general rule of thumb when reading about a guy is that I need to be able to identify him in a few categories. First, after reading a little about him, would I still draft him? Second, if I would draft him, what round would I be comfortable taking him? Third, do I get excited about drafting this player? (I play a lot with emotion, so if I don't get excited about my starting players, I try to get others.) and Fourth, would I be able to swap this guy into an essential role due to an injury or a bye week? There's really no need to waste your already limited roster space, so might as well put him to use. If you answered yes to most of these questions, that is a guy you should definitely target in your draft. You'll find that the more research you do, the more comfortable you will be on draft day. You wont panic when your first, second, or third prospect is taken because you'll know that number four is still just as much of a value. It's also very important to know your league's scoring well. If a certain position dominates in points in your league, target them early and often. Same goes with the opposite, avoid positions that don't score as well as others. Just don't forget, it's better to fill a roster spot with anybody than to not fill it.

Rule #5: Have fun! - I know it sounds really corny, but don't forget why you play. Because it's fun. It's so easy to get wrapped up in getting upset over a loss, or getting mad because a player didn't play up to his projections. But it's not the end of the world, and unless you're in the playoffs, it's not the end of the season either. Pick yourself up and move on to the next matchup, make some roster changes and move some stuff around if needed and move on. This rule doesn't just apply to the draft, it should apply to your season, and your general personality as well. Life sucks, don't forget to have some fun.

Rule #6: Dont quit. - If you've ever lost a few games in a row you know how frustrating it can be, but it's important that you not quit. It's not fair to yourself, and it's not fair to the guys that you're playing with. Just tough it out. Bad seasons happen, just learn from the time that you have left that year. If you made some bad trades, remember not to do that next year. If you drafted with the wrong strategy, make some adjustments and come back strong next year. Just don't quit. Don't trade your players to your friends in an effort to curve the league. Along with this rule I should mention that it is usually unwise to judge the strength of your roster based on the first half of the season. So if your team isn't doing as well as you thought they would, don't start trading and dropping your stars too soon. Wait it out and see if they shake the bad juju's.

Rule #7: Don't be afraid to make trades. - According to ESPN magazine, "In 2012, the four teams with the fewest number of roster changes from draft day to end of the season finished 10th, 8th, 9th, and 6th. In 2013, the four teams with the fewest roster changes finished 10th, 9th, 8th, and 7th." So it's important to consistently be looking for ways to better your team by trading and taking advantage of free agency. One quick tip I've found about successful trading is to never be too specific about what you're looking for from another player, that puts them in a situation to over sell you. If you wanted Trent Richardson really badly (silly you) and he was the RB2 on somebodies team, instead of saying "I want Trent Richardson," say something like "I'm looking for a RB2, what do you have to offer." If he offers up Trent and it's a good deal, great. If he offers you something worse than that, don't be afraid to walk away. When Trent starts doing less than that guy expected, guess who will be his first phone call. Then the ball is in your court. 

When all is said and done and you've drafted, and you're well into your season, don't be shy, refer back to this blog where I will post updates and players who are over-performing and under-performing. Use my advise and you'll have a definite edge on draft day and through the regular season.

Unfortunately, I can't tell you everything I know, or I would compromise my own success in my leagues. That comes from a really good piece of advice I read once that says:

 "There are two rules to success:

 1. Don't tell somebody everything you know. 

2.                                                               "

Good luck, hope you're not playing me.

-Mr. Know It All

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants, Preseason Week 1, 2014

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants, Preseason Week 1, 2014

Today was the first game of the NFL season (Finally), so we're gonna talk about the game and what it could mean for your Fantasy Team this year.

Who Impressed?

Andre Williams - RB - New York Giants - Did you guys see this kid? The 5'11" 234lb rookie runner out of Boston College was drafted by the Giants in the fourth round. He showed a good burst and some really great, hard running. Taking full advantage of his opportunity that he got when Rashad Jennings came off the field he finished the day with 48 Yards on 7 Carries with one TD on the ground. However, there are two things standing in his way of even a late Fantasy Pick in standard Leagues: Rashad Jennings and The Giants Offense. It seems this year the Giants are going to stick to a Runningback-by-Committee system, a Fantasy Owners least favorite system. If he stays healthy and running as good as he did, he will get some quality touches in the season, but not enough to constitute a draft pick. Don't give into the temptation.

Rashad Jennings - RB - New York Giants - I've always thought that Rashad Jennings was a pretty good runner, he just never got the touches he deserved while playing with the Jags and Raiders. Unluckily for both him and Fantasy Owners, he probably still won't. No doubt, a healthy Jennings will be the front runner in this RBBC, but he wont have much more value than that of a Flex Spot. This guy is pretty good, unfortunately the opportunity to put him in a consistent starting spot just isn't there yet. Draft him late and pray that Williams runs a little less impressively than he did. 

Robert Woods - WR - Buffalo Bills - Robert Woods is a good receiver, I had him on my team in my PPR league last year. He has the potential to do great things, his QB holds him back badly. In a crowded Bills receiving corps, the biggest Fantasy hindrance of any of these guys is E.J. Manuel. It's still early, but it just seems like he doesn't really possess the "it" factor to get it to the playmakers to do what they do best. My favorite receivers in this offense are Mike Williams, Sammy Watkins, and Robert Woods. The most valuable of those being Sammy Watkins. Of course, Buffalo seems to be a predominantly running offense with the tandem of C.J. Spiller, and the newly 400 years old Fred Jackson. This offense will be the headache offense in Fantasy this year, mark my words.

Who Fell Short?

Eli Manning - QB - New York Giants - If I even needed to tell you, don't draft Eli Manning. Unless you happen to be in a league that doesn't punish QB's for turnovers, Eli Manning should be far from the Draft Radar. But, somebody will take him in your league. There's always that guy. If you take any of my advice, be careful with this QB. He's getting older, he's a turnover machine, and a scary fantasy QB.

E.J. Manuel - QB - Buffalo Bills - I was a believer in E.J. Manuel when he came out of FSU two years ago. But he's off to a much slower start than I anticipated. It doesn't seem to be the Receiving Corps around him, or the RB's in his backfield, or his Offensive Line; in fact, he has it better off than some other QBs. But, being that it's only his Sophomore year he still has plenty of time to grow as a QB, and the young squad around him will grow with him. In two years, draft this former Seminole. This year, choose somebody else.

Sammy Watkins - WR - Buffalo Bills - Ok, so Sammy didn't necessarily fall short, because he didn't have a chance to impress or fall short. Watkins had zero receptions on three targets, all from bad throws or decisions by his QB. The whole 1st Quarter I kept telling my girlfriend "Just wait until he gets the ball, you'll see." She didn't see... Lets hope that the Bills go into practice this week addressing these issues, for both Fantasy Football Enthusiasts and Bills Enthusiasts. Let's hope for the best.

- Mr. Know It All